Donald Trump wanted a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine. He threatened Russia with what would happen if they did not agree. “I am strongly considering large scale Banking Sanctions, Sanctions, and Tariffs on Russia until a Cease Fire,” he wrote on 7 March. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio insisted the ball was on Russia’s side of the court. “If they say no,” he said, “then we’ll unfortunately know what the impediment is to peace here.”
The one meaningful proposal is a ceasefire on energy and infrastructure targets, but that is far below the promise of a full ceasefire which Ukraine agreed to on 11 March. Trump wanted something. He did not get it.
When Putin rejects Trump’s plans, precisely the opposite happens. The White House readout of the call insisted that “a future with an improved bilateral relationship between the United States and Russia has huge upside”. Far from punishing Russia, it raised the possibility of “enormous economic deals”. The Kremlin’s account said that Trump expressed support for ice hockey games in each other’s countries – basically reintroducing normal sporting relations.
That, to me, is the most obvious answer, but you can take your pick really. Ultimately, it doesn’t matter. Only the dynamics matter. Trump will side with Putin.
According to the White House, we’re now apparently going to see the start of “technical negotiations” on the next stages of the ceasefire. Trump has previously said that he wants to discuss “land” and “dividing up certain assets” – none of which would involve Ukrainian participation. The Kremlin talked about establishing US and Russian expert groups – again, with no mention of Ukrainian participation. We are basically watching the US decide which bits of Ukraine’s territory and infrastructure it is going to hand to Russia.
square PATRICK COCKBURN
Trump and Putin’s call showed peace in Ukraine is still a long way offRead More
There will be no peace here. We should be clear about that. Peace was never on offer and we are never going to get it – ceasefire or no ceasefire. Russia’s demands and Ukraine’s demands are incompatible. Ukraine’s aim is to exist. Russia’s aim is the eradication of Ukraine. You can’t negotiate your way through that impasse. You can only defeat the aggressor state, or, failing that, wait for its leader to die and hope that the next one is better.
In other words, Putin demands that Ukraine be left defenceless. Stripped first of the Crimea and other territories Russia has seized, barred from defending itself and deprived of the means to do so, it will simply be wiped from the face of the earth.
Europe therefore faces Russia alone. Any day now, Trump could present Zelensky with a fait accompli deal which it simply cannot accept, because it is so obviously Putin’s initial plan for its dismemberment. If Ukraine were to reject that deal, we could expect Trump to remove US support. This potentially includes the cessation of equipment supplies, intelligence assistance, satellite communication and even European defence supplies bought for donation.
We can prepare as quickly as possible for when the day is upon us. We can maximise our effort to replace the US even if we cannot immediately accomplish it.
Trump’s theatrics and phone calls change nothing. He is Putin’s ally, not ours. What comes next will be up to Europe, not America.
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