From today's note:
"AUD feels increasingly immobilised, lacking conviction and stuck between competing narratives. On the plus side there's a plainly more constructive medium term AUD outlook developing in real time as US growth risks build and the USD's yield underpinnings are challenged by a prolonged period of policy uncertainty. Tariffs were "supposed" to land more heavily as a downside growth risk for the RoW, but instead frequent policy reversals, chaotic delivery and communication are more obviously unsettling the US outlook."
AUD has shown resilience despite US equity drawdownsThe US policy uncertainty shock sapping US exceptionalism (this is a view that's gaining momentum)Highlight the German debt brake vote as a risk next TuesdayApril 2 'reciprocal' tariffs present strategic flush risk for AUD/USDMulti-month outlook suggests broad USD weakness despite uneven currency impactsHere is their technical view:
The base of the channel sits around 0.6220. We can see AUD threatening the base of this channel and lower levels still - the recent 0.6088 lows, if not 0.6000 - for example if de-risking escalates. But we wonder if that ultimately proves to be a false break and a long-term buying opportunity This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com. Read More Details
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