In the days leading up to the meeting, Starmer increased UK defence spending – partly by cutting foreign aid. The move was designed to reassure the US president that London was on the same page, in the hope of securing a fervent commitment from Washington to back Europe’s strategy should peace talks with Russia succeed.
While passive aggression simmered under the surface amid Trump’s meeting with Macron, Starmer massaged Trump’s ego with a letter from King Charles. Trump later described Starmer as a “very, very special person”.
Experts say that what Starmer really wants is a guarantee that US air defences would be used if any peacekeepers were attacked in Ukraine by Russia. But without explicit US backing, the European plan to put boots on the ground may now be in jeopardy. Four experts told The i Paper that Europe’s leaders must now decide whether to push ahead with peacekeeping plans, or rethink their strategy entirely.
Jamie Shea, former deputy assistant secretary general for emerging security challenges at Nato, told The i Paper that funding and equipping Ukraine’s military “has to be the priority” if Europe wants to deter Russia.
square NEWS AnalysisHow UK's 'risky' peacekeeping mission in Ukraine would work without US
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It comes as Nordic and Baltic countries pledged to increase military aid to Ukraine, including training and weapons, during a visit to Kyiv this week. Denmark pledged 2bn Danish kroner (£139m), while Sweden announced 1.2bn Swedish kronor (£56m) for air defences. Estonia also vowed to increase its aid by 25 per cent, including 10,000 mortar shells worth an additional £20m, while Latvia committed to delivering armoured personnel carriers, drones, and other equipment.
Regardless of US commitments, experts agree that Europe must accelerate its military preparations.
European defence spending reached a record €279bn (£230bn) in 2023 – a 10 per cent increase on the previous year and the ninth consecutive year of growth. However, analysts warn that this is still not enough. Some estimate that spending must increase by around €250bn (£20bn) annually to reach 3.5 per cent of GDP.
“The increase in Ukrainian defence output combined with European assistance should be sufficient to maintain resistance to Russia,” says Dr Mark Hilborne, a senior lecturer in the School of Security Studies at King’s College London.
“That is also true of Ukraine, but effectively they only have to outlast Russia, and the latter would then have to reconsider its stance. The rush for ‘a deal’ overlooks this.”
Deploying troops without a US backstop?
Shea added: “The Europeans have to commit to a Ukraine force to have a seat at the table. They must prevail on Trump to get military concessions from Moscow, including pulling back some of its 700,000 troops from the front line and agreeing to a tightly monitored demilitarised buffer zone, similar to North Korea. This would make a European reassurance force’s job easier.”
“But Trump changes his mind frequently,” Shea noted. “Macron and Starmer must keep pushing for a US backstop. Europe must have a military presence to ensure it has a seat at the negotiating table.”
Experts also see Trump’s proposed US-Ukraine mineral deal as a potential tool to keep America engaged in Ukraine’s defence, even if only for commercial reasons.
An isolated Europe?
“For European countries, Ukraine’s security and managing the Russian threat are deeply intertwined with their own long-term security architecture,” she said. “However, it remains unclear whether Europe has a clear vision for this architecture in the event of a ceasefire or peace deal.”
Starmer is expected to return to London on Sunday and consult with European allies on the next steps, while Zelensky meets Trump today. But experts agree on one thing: Europe can no longer rely on the US to guarantee its security.
Andrew Gilligan is head of transport at Policy Exchange and was transport adviser to No10 from 2019 to 2022.
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