It has a population of just shy of two million people, which if it were a city, would make it the second largest in the country. And yet it mostly only makes the news if there is some sort of terror attack. Nearly 27 years after the signing of the Good Friday Agreement, it really deserves better. So it is little wonder that there is growing discussion about a reunification of the two parts of Ireland.
Since 2022 the Irish Times have been conducting in-depth annual surveys on attitudes to reunification in the north and south. This year’s results make for some fascinating reading.
Significantly, if a cross border poll emerged with a majority for unity, the number of unionists who would find this “impossible to accept” has nearly halved in two years (32 per cent to 20 per cent). But one in five of the population is a significant minority – and there are still risks of sparking yet another round of paramilitary resistance.
It’s a heart versus head thing. People in the south know full well that Britain subsidises the economy in the north to the tune of £10-15bn per annum. This year the Republic of Ireland government will have a total expenditure of £100bn, so at a stroke reunification would increase this expenditure by 10 to 15 per cent.
There is little doubt that Brexit has weakened loyalties within younger demographics, especially within the unionist community. The apparent willingness of the then UK government to sell Northern Ireland down the river during Brexit negotiations has contributed to this. There is still a resentment that although Northern Ireland voted to Remain by 56 to 42 per cent, it was forced to join the rest of the UK in coming out. As in Scotland, those resentments still run high.
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Read MoreIn 1922 we marked the centenary of the Anglo Irish Treaty and the creation of Northern Ireland. I have absolutely no doubt that there will be no 200th anniversary celebrations. I don’t think a united Ireland is an imminent possibility, but I wouldn’t bet against it happening by 2050.
On this side of the Irish Sea, there will be many who would say good riddance to a seemingly intractable issue. Most, however, would be incredibly sad to bid farewell to a land and a people which has been an integral part of the United Kingdom for more than two centuries.
Iain Dale presents the Evening Show on LBC Radio, Monday to Thursday, 7-10pm. His book The Taoiseach will be published on 23 October by Swift Press
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