A calmer mood ahead of European trading ...Middle East

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EUR/USD is nudging closer towards a test of 1.0500, which stifled the January push higher. Meanwhile, GBP/USD looks to be coming up for air in a push above 1.2500 and starting to draw towards its 100-day moving average - seen at 1.2693 currently.

As for USD/JPY, the pair remains very much tied to the bond market. The sharp fall yesterday erases the gains from Wednesday after the US CPI report. We're drawn back towards a test of the key daily moving averages with the 200-day moving average in focus at 152.68 currently. That comes as 10-year yields in the US saw a notable reversal from a high of 4.66% on Wednesday to 4.53% now.

For now though, the bar is relatively high for that to happen in my view.

Looking elsewhere, risk trades are continuing to hold up well. European indices are poised for a seventh straight week of gains and US equities are also nearing fresh record highs again. At this point, if tariff fears aren't enough to keep this market down then the onus will fall back on inflation.

And perhaps a surprise, or perhaps not really, in all of this is gold. The precious metal got a bit of a check earlier in the week but is now trading back up to $2,930 levels. It is also poised for a seventh straight week of gains. $3,000 can't come soon enough. ?

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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