So says a former Tory adviser plugged into Welsh politics, who predicts Nigel Farage’s party could have a “storming night” at the Senedd elections in May 2026.
According to Britain’s most eminent pollster, Professor Sir John Curtice, “if Reform are going to pull off anything spectacular in the next couple of years” the Senedd election is “their best prospect”.
A major Reform breakthrough in Cardiff Bay would not just reshape Welsh politics, but send shockwaves through Westminster.
The ex-adviser says: “There’s an absolute perfect storm for both Labour and the Conservatives in Wales, and therefore a perfect storm for Keir [Starmer] and Kemi [Badenoch].”
Wales is polled less frequently than UK-wide voting intentions, so it is harder to gauge exactly how well Reform is doing there.
For their part, Reform have not been coy about their ambitions in Wales. Last year, Farage said that the campaign for the Senedd would be “by far our biggest priority” in 2026.
Why Reform is optimistic about the Senedd
The party has reasons for optimism beyond the current polling numbers. First there is the fact that the Senedd uses proportional representation for its elections which means Reform can avoid the first past the post kicking it got in Westminster this year where 14.3 per cent of the vote got it just 0.8 per cent of the MPs. And it is about to get more proportional.
Farage-led parties have a track record there. In the 2019 European Parliament election, the Brexit Party finished as the largest party in Wales. And in May 2016, UKIP won seven seats in the Senedd. “We should remember that UKIP have managed to do well in previous Senedd elections, and to that extent, at least, there is form there,” Curtice says.
“Whether you like it or not, these coastal communities and these poorer communities are ahead of the politics in Westminster, well ahead of it.”
‘People have had enough of public services in Wales’
The problem for the Welsh Labour Party is it cannot easily explain away these issues because it has been in government continuously since devolution began in 1999. For years, the party could at least kick against a Tory government in Westminster. But with Starmer in No 10, it no longer has this luxury.
A UK Government source acknowledges that repelling Reform in Wales will not be easy. “It’s tough for [the Welsh Labour Party], they’ve been in power for a long time,” they admit. To make matters worse, Labour pushed through a new electoral system for 2026 – moving to a more proportional system in a Senedd expanded from 60 members to 96 – which should benefit Reform. “To say there’s buyer’s remorse now in the Labour Party is an understatement,” the ex-adviser says.
Labour’s woes in Wales
The Welsh Labour Party has suffered a series of controversies and crises in recent years. In September 2023, the Welsh Government switched the default speed limit on roads in built-up areas from 30mph to 20mph. Half a million people signed a petition calling for it to be scrapped. It prompted a review of the policy, with councils currently considering whether more roads can be switched back to 30mph.
However, data for the first full year of the scheme released last month found that around 100 fewer people had been killed or seriously injured on such roads compared to the previous year.
A bigger crisis saw Vaughan Gething resign as First Minister just four months after taking the job. Gething had been under intense pressure over a £200,000 campaign donation he received from a businessman convicted of environmental offences. The row resulted in him losing a non-binding vote of no confidence and a cooperation deal with Plaid Cymru breaking down.
For the time being, Reform has scant representation in Welsh politics. But last summer, the party gained its first elected representatives when three independent members of Torfaen council joined the party.
Reform is facing an early electoral test this week in the form of a by-election in the Trevethin and Penygarn division of Torfaen council on Thursday. Thomas says there has been a Labour representative in the area “for around about 100 years” but he is “more than confident that we will win”. “Pretty much every single house we’ve knocked so far has been rampant for Reform,” he says.
Reform ‘saying everything to everyone’
For the ex-adviser, the fact that Farage’s party is riding high in Wales is “not because of what they’ve done”. Reform is still “slightly speaking out of both sides of their mouth” – at once “pro-devolution” but also flirting with Trumpian ideas of “DOGE” (Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency) to take a chainsaw to government. “They’re saying everything to everyone at the minute,” the ex-adviser says.
Wales’s First Minister, Eluned Morgan, has said “there is nothing Welsh about Reform”, labelling it “an English focused party”. Reform does not currently have a leader for its Welsh operation, with Farage expected to retain his tight grip on power in the party by fronting the Senedd campaign. However, the ex-adviser is sceptical that seeking to weaponise Farage’s Englishness can work against Reform. “Don’t buy any of this, ‘it’s got to be a Welsh person’. The Welsh guys love Farage.”
Claims the Welsh NHS will not be safe with Farage
“The Welsh NHS is not safe in Reform’s hands – Nigel Farage has said he wants to get rid of it. The people of Wales made the NHS, and now Reform wants to sell it off to the highest bidder.”
“The Welsh Conservatives will be setting out a clear plan to cut waiting times, boost the economy, and drive up education standards. We are serious about governing and will be offering properly costed, well thought out policies – not soundbites.”
Quality control of candidates for the 2026 election will also be a challenge. Thomas says that vetting will be done “very, very carefully, so whoever does get through has some form of ability”. But Farage is no stranger to selection scandals. At the general election, Reform were forced to drop a number of candidates after racist or offensive comments came to light. The ex-adviser believes that the expanded Senedd will pose “a big ask” for all the parties in finding 96 candidates, but Reform could be particularly vulnerable to “cranks” slipping through the net.
How infighting can hit an insurgent party in Wales
In May 2016, UKIP was riding high in Wales after winning seven seats in the Senedd.
However, within a couple of months the party’s Senedd members had descended into open warfare amid a power struggle over leadership of the group. The group got through four leaders in two years and by 2019 had just one member left in the Senedd, with the others quitting to sit as independents or joining Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party.
In the 2021 Senedd election, UKIP suffered a complete collapse of support, finishing seventh with about 1 per cent of the vote.
The chances of Reform governing Wales in coalition
Of course, this will also pose dilemmas for other parties. Morgan has said she thinks going into coalition with Reform will be a “red line”. If Reform outperform the Tories, would Badenoch be able to stomach her party being a junior partner? The Tory ex-adviser says that some Welsh Conservatives are thinking the previously unthinkable: “It could end up next year that Plaid Cymru – the nationalists – and the Conservatives, could get together to block Reform.” While “there are Welsh Conservatives who would do that deal”, the insider says that it would be anathema for many Welsh Tory unionists and would probably fatally split the party.
However, others are wary of the argument that government could be a poison chalice. “People may say that if Reform get in that it will show the public how bad they are at running things, but I remember that argument being made about the SNP when we lost Scotland,” the UK Government source says. “Decades later they’re still there. If your strategy is based on losing power then you might need to reassess.”
But whether it is in Cardiff Bay or Westminster, Curtice believes the formula for containing Reform is the same.
“These are the fundamental challenges. This is what the electorate is looking for. These are the challenges that the Labour Party was elected to deal with.
“The question is whether that can be turned around.”
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