The U.S. and Canada are sparring over trade policy. The fact that the two countries are close allies makes the fracas seem all the more nasty.
Thankfully, the adversaries agreed to retreat to their respective corners for 30 days, but they haven’t left the ring. The trade fight is delayed, not over, not yet, at least. There’s a chance the rhetorical tussle will begin again soon.
When our friends fight, one common reaction is, “What the heck just happened?” The second is, “How is this going to affect us?” In this case, “us” is Florida.
Visitors browse shops on Main Street on Wednesday in downtown Dunedin. [ DOUGLAS R. CLIFFORD | Times ]Florida relies on Canada and vice versa. One important way: Canadians visit Florida — a lot. They vacation here in droves and hundreds of thousands are seasonal residents, our Canadian snowbirds. A prolonged dispute with tit-for-tat tariffs wouldn’t be good for Florida tourism. But how bad could it get?
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Canadians account for the most international visits to the United States. A 10% reduction in Canadian travel could mean 2 million fewer visits, $2.1 billion in lost spending and 14,000 job losses, according to the U.S. Travel Association. Florida could take the hardest hit, given that more Canadians visit our state than any other. In fact, more than a quarter of Florida’s international visitors come from Canada, the most of any country, according to VisitFlorida, the state’s tourism marketing arm.
Locally, Tampa International Airport boasts 70 nonstop weekly flights to Canadian cities during peak tourist season, the most to any foreign country. About 350,000 people flew on those flights last year, and the airport plans to add a nonstop flight to Vancouver in June.
About 450,000 Canadians visit Pinellas County every year, according to Visit St. Pete-Clearwater. While that’s only 3% of all visitors to the county, the market is important enough that the county’s tourism booster targeted its seasonal advertising campaign at Canada, not U.S. cities in the Midwest and Northeast.
Liz Johnson left, and Bobby Johnson purchase tickets to the Spring Training opener scheduled between the New York Yankees and the Toronto Blue Jays on Wednesday at TD Ballpark in Dunedin. [ DOUGLAS R. CLIFFORD | Times ]International tourists tend to stay longer and spend more than Americans who travel in the state. So state and local officials could be forgiven for cringing when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau played the patriotism card earlier this week, urging Canadians not to travel to the U.S. and instead to “choose Canada” for their vacations.
Trudeau’s message and the dispute’s fiery tenor can affect tourism, economist Amanda Phalin told me. She said one of Canada’s largest travel agencies had already reported an increase in clients canceling U.S. trips and rebooking to other destinations.
“Those are the impacts that just talk can have,” said Phalin, an associate instructional professor at the University of Florida.
The tourism outlook will worsen if the talk turns to action and the two countries slap each other with heavy tariffs. By some estimates, President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs and the expected Canadian retaliation would shrink Canada’s economy by more than 2%. That might not sound like much, but it’s enough to cast a financial gloom over the country. Gloomy residents don’t vacation as much.
Historically, tariffs can also lower a country’s currency. Even now, Canadians only get about 70 cents U.S. for each dollar. An even lower Canadian dollar would force more Canadians to stay home or visit more affordable countries.
The uncertainty over whether the two sides will impose tariffs isn’t helping. It breeds a kind of financial paralysis. People won’t be as eager to book fancy vacations if they feel unsure about the future.
“One thing markets and businesses don’t like is uncertainty,” Phalin said. “The same can be said for consumers.”
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Ron Valbracht sees the dispute as mostly Trump talking tough, and Canadian leaders feeling obligated to respond. The longtime snowbird from the Canadian province of Ontario, who spends part of the year in Dunedin, thinks the two sides will work it out without imposing draconian tariffs
Ron Valbracht Sr. and Annelies Valbracht of Ennismore, Ontario, left, stand with Laurie Valbracht and Ron Valbracht Jr., of Bridgenorth, Ontario, right, at Ron Sr. and Annelies’ home at the Grand Bay mobile home park in Dunedin on Wednesday. [ DOUGLAS R. CLIFFORD | Times ]“There is trouble enough in our world without making trouble between two great friends,” said Valbracht, 76, who has wintered in Florida for 28 years. “I think it will all go back to normal soon.”
Steven Fine wasn’t as sure. He is president and managing editor of Snowbird Advisor, a Toronto-based organization that provides tools and services for Canadians who want to spend their winters abroad. Many of his members aren’t happy with the heated language and talk of “wars” and retaliation, he said.
In dealing with the U.S., Canadians can feel like the underdogs, picked on by a vastly larger superpower. The U.S. economy is more than 12 times the size of Canada’s. No one likes to feel bullied or disrespected.
“There is definitely a large number of snowbirds who have a negative sentiment at the moment,” he said. “How that will translate, we won’t know for a while.”
Estimates vary on how many Canadians are part-time residents in Florida. Fine said about 1 million Canadians meet the definition of a snowbird — over the age of 55, retired or semi-retired and living in another country for one to six months a year. Most end up in the United States, and Florida is the top destination by far, he said.
Unlike regular tourists, most of the seasonal snowbirds are already here. They usually start coming in November and December and stay until April. Many of them drive to Florida. They come yearly, own property in Florida or have signed rental leases. They have roots here. They might not like Trump’s latest salvo, but they aren’t likely to pack their cars and head home now.
Fine has his eye on next season. He wonders whether the political environment, a weak Canadian dollar and Florida’s rising costs will dent the numbers. He’s seen an uptick in his members choosing Portugal, Spain, Costa Rica, Panama, Belize and Caribbean islands. Florida, though, remains No. 1.
“People only have so much money to spend,” he said. “But snowbirds aren’t casual tourists. They are traditionally a very resilient market.”
Remember, they are here for a reason. Canadian winters are long, dark and cold. It was 8 degrees in Montreal last week and 2 degrees in Winnipeg. Valbracht had to travel back to Ennismore, Ontario, for a few days recently. He found 2 feet of snow on the ground. The temperature plunged to minus 13 degrees Fahrenheit on Sunday.
A Canadian flag flies at the entrance to Grand Bay mobile home park on Wednesday in Dunedin. [ DOUGLAS R. CLIFFORD | Times ]“I never want to feel that cold again,” he said. “It’s too much.”
Florida’s near-endless sunshine, 75-degree winter days and gorgeous beaches are hard to pass up. Kids also care much more about meeting Disney’s Mickey Mouse and exploring Universal’s Wizarding World of Harry Potter than the international trade of soybeans or car parts. Those advantages aren’t going away. How will they hold up against the fallout from a potentially heated trade war? We’ll know soon.
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