Fed's Barkin: Baseline data has been favourable ...Middle East

It's difficult to know the impact of tariffs.Looking forward it's hard to know what specific tariffs are coming.Uncertainty goes beyond tariffs to immigration, regulation and other issues.Many Trump policies adding to uncertainty in economy.I see strong consumer spending and lower investment in 2025.I expect 12 month inflation numbers to come down nicely.I still lean towards cuts this year.Would never take any policy move off the table, but hikes would require an economy overheating.I see no sign of the US economy overheating.The bias is to see what happens and then react to it.Still think policy rate is modestly restrictive.We have recalibrated to a place that is more sensible to where the economy is now. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

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