We break down the five most important matchups, reveal our player projections, our model’s pick for the big game and all our Super Bowl predictions.
Football is a team sport, but the key moments of every game will inevitably come down to the minute advantages one side can grab over the other.
And sometimes, that boils down to individual matchups – either on a player-versus-player level or a player against a specific unit.
The Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles are no strangers to each other after having played against one another Super Bowl at the end of the 2022 season.
And while some of the most important aspects of this game remain the same – particularly at quarterback, the head coaches and key defensive and skill position players – there are also huge differences between the two teams this time around, which could easily swing the pendulum one way or the other.
These are the five most important matchups that could determine who wins Super Bowl LIX, along with player statistical projections and our model’s pick of which team will win the game.
Super Bowl 59: Kansas City Chiefs (17-2) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (17-3)
Date: Sunday, Feb. 9, 6:30 pm ET Venue: Caesars Superdome in New Orleans Line: Chiefs by 1.5 Over/Under: 49Saquon Barkley vs. KC’s Run Defense
Barkley’s presence could be the most impactful addition to this game. Three years ago, the Eagles leaned on quarterback Jalen Hurts in the ground game after he tallied 70 yards and three touchdowns on 15 carries. No other Philadelphia running back rushed more than seven times for 21 yards.
Now, Steve Spagnuolo’s unit won’t just need to account for Hurts’ legs. Barkley has been nearly unstoppable this season with an NFL-leading 2,005 yards and 13 touchdowns in the regular season to go along with 442 yards and five touchdowns in his three playoff games.
Kansas City’s run defense is no slouch, though. The Chiefs rank third in the NFL in EVE (efficiency vs. expected) against the run and the team’s 3.8 yards allowed per rush are the third fewest in the NFL.
KC played fairly well against the three other teams with a better run success rate than Philadelphia this year, too, in the Baltimore Ravens, Atlanta Falcons and Buffalo Bills (twice).
(YPG=Yards Per Game, YPC=Yards Per Carry, YBCo=Yards Before Contact, RSR-A=Run Success Rate Allowed)Now, this chart looks at all of the rushing output by each team, including Lamar Jackson for the Ravens and Josh Allen for the Bills. And so while the yardage looks like a lot, the Chiefs were very stout against each team’s running back.
Among this group, only Buffalo’s James Cook eclipsed 50 yards in a game – which he only did in the AFC championship game. Cook managed just 20 yards in Week 11, while Derrick Henry rushed for just 46 for the Ravens in Week 1 and Atlanta’s Bijan Robinson managed just 31 yards in Week 3.
This is a good sign for the Chiefs on their own, and Barkley has been a bit inconsistent when faced with similar run defenses on his own this season as well. Here he is against defenses with better run success rates allowed than the Chiefs.
Barkley hasn’t nearly been as prolific on the ground against the best run defenses. His 84 yards against the Buccaneers were on just 10 carries in what turned into a throwing bonanza when the Eagles trailed 24-7 at halftime in the eventual loss.
Other than the Week 12 win over the Ravens, Barkley performed worse than his season-long per-game averages.
Barkley's Projected Stats: 20.9 rushes, 95.4 yards, 0.5 rushing TDsChiefs TE Travis Kelce vs. Eagles LB Zach Baun
Patrick Mahomes has a cadre of different receivers to throw to, but he still relies heavily on Kelce. The trusty veteran tight end out-targeted every other Chiefs pass catcher by at least 35 this season and finished with 38 more receptions than rookie receiver Xavier Worthy.
Kelce didn’t see much action in the AFC championship game, likely because of the Bills’ decision to keep him in check than Mahomes looking elsewhere. The Chiefs still found success through the air, but Mahomes looked toward Worthy way more often and still finished with 245 passing yards.
The Eagles’ not-so-secret defensive weapon is linebacker Zach Baun, who they brought in during free agency on a one-year flier. He’s been excellent for Vic Fangio’s defense as a do-it-all player who especially excels in pass coverage.
Baun has been targeted 74 times on 554 pass coverage snaps this season (second and first in NFL among linebackers, respectively) and allowed a burn rate of only 39.2% and 8.17 burn yards per target. Those numbers rank second and eighth, respectively, among linebackers with at least 300 pass coverage snaps this year (including the playoffs).
(RD%=Run Disruption Rate/BURN-A%=Burn-Allowed Rate)He’ll most likely be called upon to stop one of the best tight ends in NFL history in Kelce, who sees a lot of action in the middle of the field around 6.7 yards off the line of scrimmage.
Baun has been impressive when he faces teams with a top-targeted tight end (the Washington Commanders twice, Dallas Cowboys twice, Cleveland Browns and Tampa Bay Buccaneers). In those matchups, Baun allowed a burn rate of only 30.0% and 9.17 burn yards per target on 20 combined targets over 158 combined pass coverage snaps.
Kelce’s production has been a bit all over the place this season. Some weeks he’s heavily targeted and others he’s an afterthought. Whatever the case may be in this one, he is still Mahomes’ go-to man in the middle of the field and in critical situations.
This time, he’ll have to contend with Baun.
Kelce's Projected Stats: 6.6 catches, 55.3 yards, 0.3 touchdownsChiefs CB Trent McDuffie vs. Eagles WRs A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith
McDuffie has blossomed into KC’s No. 1 corner after the team traded away L’Jarius Sneed this past offseason. He ranks ninth in burn-allowed percentage and first in burn yards allowed per target with 48.9% and 7.98 yards, respectively. McDuffie’s 59.6% open-allowed rate also ranks fourth.
He’ll have the pleasure of lining up against one of the Eagles’ two top-flight pass catchers in Brown and Smith. The duo combined for nearly 2,000 receiving yards and totaled 15 touchdowns during the regular season and added 241 yards and one touchdown in three postseason games.
It’s unclear if McDuffie will shadow either exclusively or not, but he’ll certainly see action against them throughout the contest. And it’s important to note that while Brown and Smith are great receivers, they excel at three primary routes: dig, out and slants.
To understand how a cornerback like McDuffie would fare against the likes of Brown and/or Smith, you have to look at how he actually fared against similar top-targeted receivers – ones whose route trees resembled who he’ll see in the Super Bowl. Those names include Drake London, Cortland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Mike Evans, Ja’Marr Chase, Nico Collins, Amari Cooper and George Pickens.
Apart from a few outliers, McDuffie was more or less on-par with his seasonal averages.
(BR-A%=Burn-Allowed Rate, BYA/TGT=Burn Yards Allowed Per Target, OPEN-A%=Open-Allowed Rate)The problem here is that even if McDuffie can shut down one receiver at a time, the Eagles can just as easily go to the other or even target tight end Dallas Goedert. Barkley is also always a threat out of the backfield as a pass catcher.
But it’s still important for McDuffie to be a factor. Kansas City’s secondary overall ranks 21st in defensive EVE against the pass, 25th in pass success rate allowed and 14th in passing yards allowed per play. Taking away either Brown or Smith on any given play limits Hurts’ options and gives the Chiefs defensive line ample time to disrupt the Eagles at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Alternatively, Brown and Smith have game-breaking ability. Brown particularly made huge plays in the first half of the NFC championship game. His 31-yard catch on fourth down in the second quarter eventually set up a Hurts’ rushing score before Brown himself caught a touchdown before halftime.
Brown's Projected Stats: 5.1 catches, 70.8 yards, 0.4 touchdowns Smith's Projected Stats: 4.7 catches, 49.2 yards, 0.4 touchdownsEagles DT Jalen Carter vs. Chiefs C Creed Humphrey
The battle in the trenches might be the biggest for either side. It will effectively pit an unstoppable force against an immovable object. Whichever side holds up could change the trajectory of the game.
Carter has wreaked havoc on opposing offensive lines this season. And on the other side of the ball, Humphrey has been arguably the league’s best center.
First, on Carter: He is just one of five defensive tackles with at least 250 snaps who has a pressure rate above 15% and a run disruption rate above 25%. One of the others is none other than Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones.
Carter ranks 14th out of those 18 defensive tackles in pressure rate and fifth in run disruption rate. Humphrey, meanwhile, has the lowest pressure-allowed rate and run disruption-allowed rate among centers with at least 250 snaps.
The Chiefs rely on Humphrey to set the tone on the offensive line. His ability to keep the pocket alive for Mahomes gives the Chiefs many options on offense, including Mahomes using his legs to extend drives.
Humphrey held his own against the top defensive tackles, too. He’s faced four others with elite production this season: Zach Allen of the Denver Broncos, Nnamdi Madubuike of the Ravens, Cameron Heyward of the Steelers and Ed Oliver of the Bills (twice).
(PR-A%=Pressure-Allowed Rate, ASR-A%=Adjusted Sack Rate Allowed, RD-A%=Run Disruption Rate Allowed)Humphrey is the best part of the offensive line, though, and the Eagles would be wise to look for cracks elsewhere. Tackle Jawaan Taylor and converted tackle Joe Thuney (who began the season as a guard) and newly inserted guard Mike Caliendo have been pretty mediocre. Right guard Trey Smith is the only other solid offensive lineman behind Humphrey.
So while Humphrey may very well win his 1-on-1 matchups with Carter, he’ll need some support from his teammates to prevent Carter from dismantling plays.
Check Out All the Chiefs Projected StatsChiefs DT Chris Jones vs. Eagles C Cam Jurgens
Three years ago, Jones faced off against Eagles All-Pro center Jason Kelce. And while Jones enjoyed a career-best season in 2022, Kelce stifled him in the Super Bowl. This time around, Jones gets a likely easier matchup against Kelce’s understudy and successor in Cam Jurgens.
Jones’ dominance cannot be overstated. As mentioned earlier, he and Carter are the two of the best defensive tackles in the game, but Jones is on another level. He ranks fifth in pressure rate with 20.8% but he’s second in run disruption rate at 28.4% among defensive tackles with at least 250 snaps.
This is critical in defending Philadelphia’s offensive attack. Barkley is the big weapon, but Hurts’ rushing ability makes pressuring him all the more important. The QB is coming off a three-score game on the ground against the Commanders.
Philadelphia also lost two of its three games this season when Hurts was pressured on at least 22% of his drop backs. In the Eagles’ biggest loss – a Week 4 defeat in Tampa Bay – Hurts saw a pressure rate of 32.4%, which was his second-highest rate faced all season.
Not all of that fell on Jurgens, but he’ll be the primary contender with Jones in the middle of the line. Jurgens ranks 27th among 28 centers with at least 250 pass-protection snaps in pressure-allowed rate (7.6%) and run disruption-allowed rate (18.1%).
That all bodes well for Jones’ ability to torment both Hurts and Barkley.
Check Out All the Eagles Projected StatsThe Verdict
These aren’t the only individual matchups that could decide this game, but they are the biggest and most important ones that also involve the best players on either side. And in such a close contest, even the smallest of edges could shift the balance between a big play and small one, or a win and a loss.
In just looking at these five matchups, it appears as though the Chiefs have a slight advantage over the Eagles – mostly between Jones, McDuffie and their run defense. The offense will be where things could go either way. Kelce could be contained by Baun, and the offensive line apart from Humphrey might not be able hold Carter.
But just like in the previous meeting, this Super Bowl will likely come down to how the quarterbacks – Mahomes and Hurts – take what’s in front of them and tip the scales in their favor.
Opta Analyst’s Projected Winner (Win Probability): Eagles (50.8%)Super Bowl Predictions: The Key Matchups That Will Decide Chiefs vs. Eagles in New Orleans Opta Analyst.
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