Why Trump could help boost Reform UK’s rise in Scotland ...Middle East

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The new US President may also have a major impact on the Scottish economy by imposing tariffs on key goods and shaking up the global energy sector.

Some believe voters in Scotland may be particularly susceptible to anti-net zero arguments because of fears for jobs in the North Sea oil and gas industry.

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Last month he called on the UK Government to “open up” to more oil and gas drilling off the north-east coast of Scotland and “get rid of windmills”.

While few expect Trump to shift either Scottish or UK Government policy, some think his rhetoric could help “amplify” Reform UK’s attacks on mainstream rivals.

“Trump is going to talk about drilling for fossil fuels and rolling back net zero. It makes it a lot of easier for Reform to say, ‘Net zero makes you poorer, we need to abandon all this stuff – look at what Trump is doing’.

Farage’s party wants to scrap the UK Government target to reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Reform claims that the policies which stem from it cost £30bn a year – though the figure is based on the party’s “own judgments and assessments”.

Reform support in Scotland stands at 13 per cent, according to a recent Survation poll. It would give Farage’s party 15 seats in the Scottish Parliament next year, according to polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice.

Diffley pointed to a November poll by Norstat showing that 25 per cent of Scottish voters would have backed Trump over Kamala Harris at the US election.

“So it suggests there probably is room for Reform support to grow – particularly if he [Trump] is vocally involved in things affecting the [Scottish] election debate.”

SNP leader and First Minister John Swinney faces a tough task in keeping the US president onside Trump considers the level of tariffs he wishes to impose on foreign imports.

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“The Scottish Government can try to appeal to his ego and affinity for Scotland, but Trump is very transactional,” said Dr Fraser McMillan, a Scottish elections expert at the University of Edinburgh.

Stephen Boyd, director of the IPPR Scotland think tank, said it was possible Trump could “try to influence the Scottish Government on oil and gas [drilling] in order to boost the prospect of US multinationals”.

He also played down the prospect of Swinney being able to influence Trump on tariffs, since the nitty-gritty of trade negotiations will be down to Keir Starmer’s Government.

The Scottish Chambers of Commerce has warned that the US market is “critical” to Scotland’s economy. It has called on the UK Government “to negotiate competitive trade terms and minimise tariff-related barriers” with the Trump administration.

“It’s unwise to assume there will be a positive impact for Scotland, but there could be. Investors look at opportunities all over the world,” said Boyd.

The Scottish Government and Reform UK have been approached for comment.

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