Why the Canadian dollar will continue to ignore economic data ...Middle East

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Canadian economic data is quickly falling to the backburner in terms of market-moving impact for two reasons:

The entire economy could be upended if Trump follows through on his 25% tariff threat on February 1. The market thinks it's mostly bluster but you never know with Trump. Deutsche Bank yesterday said USD/CAD could rise as high as 1.61 in a trade war.

Canada removed its VAT on many items for a tax holiday from December 15-February 15. That's going to put a kink in consumer spending and it will filter down to many other economic indicators as well. It's going to make it difficult to get a clear read on retail sales and inflation for at least a few months.

All this makes the Bank of Canada's job doubly difficult but I would expect them to err on the side of easing as most of the risks are to the downside.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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