After 15 months of bloody war in Gaza following the brutal Hamas attack on Israel in October 2023 , a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas began on Sunday with the exchange of 33 Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, as well as a surge in humanitarian aid to Gaza.
But it also marks a moment of reckoning for Iran, which suffered a series of blows in the conflict and will now be forced to rethink its approach to security, experts said – including its nuclear programme.
Tehran had been “looking for a way to step back from the brink”, amid domestic instability and the weakening of its regional allies – Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen – during the conflict, she said.
“Iran knows that, while a powerful country with a substantial army and strong regional network, it has been weakened. Israel taking out key leaders in Hamas and especially Hezbollah left Iran reeling,” she said.
‘Renewed interest’ in nuclear weapons
After a series of blows to its allies and proxies, Tehran must now use the ceasefire to rethink its approach to security, experts said.
“There’s been a lot of soul searching at the top of the table in Iran; it previously had a ‘forward defence’ strategy which aimed to arm and train allies like Hamas and Hezbollah in order to push the fighting further from its own borders and deter Israel. This conflict proves that that hasn’t worked,” he said.
“I think there will be renewed interest within Iran towards its nuclear programme. There’s a feeling that it needs another deterrent, and that might be nuclear weapons. That was always the idea – not to use them against Israel but to deter Israel from attacking. Tehran saw North Korea taking this approach and wanted to replicate it.”
Iran’s involvement in the Gaza conflict
Iran has long funded and armed Hamas, as it seeks to expand its regional influence and threaten Israel. It has long referred to the US as “Great Satan” and Israel – and the UK – as “Little Satan”.
Some reports suggested Iran helped plot the 7 October attack in which more than 1,200 people were killed and more than 250 others taken hostage, and trained hundreds of Hamas and other Islamist militants in the weeks preceding it.
Iran has denied any involvement, and other reports from US intelligence sources indicate that it was taken by surprise by the attack.
After decades of proxy war, conflict between Iran and Israel erupted after the start of the war in Gaza.
In April 2024, for the first time, Iran launched more than 330 missiles into Israel, in what it said was retaliation for an attack on its consulate in Syria. It launched a further wave in October.
In July, Israel assassinated Hamas’s political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Iran’s Supreme Leader said at the time he considered it “our duty to avenge his blood in this bitter and difficult incident.”
She said that the Iranian leadership was split on the question of nuclear weapons.
Dr Ozcelik said: “There is a divide in Iran on the question of how to approach the US and its allies on the question of its nuclear program. President Pezeshkian has been more open to engagement with the West, whereas the IRGC and more conservative actors lobby for a hard-line approach as the country braces for the ‘hyper’ maximum pressure offensive that President Trump has threatened.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian attend a documents signing ceremony in Moscow, Russia , 17 January 2025. (Photo: Reuters/ Evgenia Novozhenina)
The US and UK have already accused Tehran of providing Moscow with ballistic missiles and drones for use against Ukraine and a strengthening of ties is unlikely to go down well among Western leaders.
However, developing nuclear programme could bring a new set of risks to Iran, Dr Nick Westcott, a former British ambassador and member of SOAS’s Middle East Institute, warned.
Dr Westcott said that while focusing on nuclear weapons was one option, this comes with “costs as well as benefits.”
“Further nuclear development in Iran could also precipitate proliferation in their region, as with India and Pakistan, and then what have advantage have you got? Tehran could have spent a fortune and have no competitive advantage.”
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei greeting visitors as he makes a speech in Tehran on 22 December 2024. (Photo: AFP PHOTO / HO / KHAMENEI.IR)“Developing nuclear capacity could also trigger military action in the short term to prevent it, although they’ve tried to defend against this by digging the technology deep in the ground,” he said.
“There is also still some time before they have an operational and deliverable weapon. This makes them very vulnerable – they’re heightening tensions without the ability to back it up. A key question is: would a nuclear programme have deterrent effect if it isn’t operational?”
Iran’s allies let down and weakened
Elliot Chapman, senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at intelligence company Janes, said that Iran was likely continue using its nuclear programme as both a “carrot and a stick” for its geopolitical relationships, “ramping up aspects of its programme when it wants to apply pressure to its adversaries, while also offering compliance with the IAEA when it suits it.”
“Iran probably knows this and is smart enough to avoid it, especially as Israel has already shown its ability to attack some of Iran’s most capable air defence systems and create greater freedom of action in doing so.”
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Read More“Hamas has lost most of its cadre of leadership that were close to Iran and those that are left who are pro-Iranian are not as influential in the organisation,” he said.
However, he said that alongside losing its “crown jewel” in Hezbollah, Iran had “perhaps more importantly lost its prestige as a protector” – and that this could weaken its international position long term.
“Iran was also unwilling or unable to have any meaningful impact on the HTS-led assault on Damascus leaving its long-term support for its allies in question when it matters most.”
If Iran pivots away from relying on proxies for its security, the group could see a drop in support, and the Houthis could seek greater autonomy if they no longer trust Iran to back them following its neglect of other allied groups.
However, experts stressed that the group has increasingly operated independently and were unlikely to be working under the instruction of Iran.
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