Market pricing now shows that a May rate cut to a range of 4.00-4.25% is now less-likely than a hold, with the probability at 46%. The first fully-priced cut isn't until September and there 31 bps in easing priced in compared to 35 bps pre-data.
In that sense, the real economy has faced a de facto hike since September rather than the 100 basis points in easing since September. That will cool activity later this year and could also cool equity markets before that.
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