Seasonal adjustments are big part of the equation in the December report, given all the short-term jobs in holiday retail and delivery. According to BMO:
46% of previous unemployment reads in December have been lower-than-expected, 15% have been higher-than-estimates, and 39% have matched the consensus.That points to downside risks to the 4.2% unemployment rate, which is consensus this month. I would note, however, that the unrounded unemployment rate was 4.2457% in November, so there is plenty of ground to cover there before getting at 4.1% reading. Also keep an eye on labor force participation.
As for the headline, the split is 54% of the time to the downside and beating 46% of the time. I wouldn't read much into that skew but a soft reading today would solve just about every market problem as it would drive yields lower and erase worries (for at least a month) about a Fed pivot to neutral.
Other spots to watch are wages and private payrolls.
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