Instead, US 30-year bond yields are up 6.3 bps to 4.78%, which is the highest since May. The late-April high of 4.85% is now within striking distance and I suspect that would set off alarm bells.
Surely there is some low-hanging fruit in government but so much of the budget is now spent on interest, the military and entitlements that it's tough to make a dent without any help on the revenue side. The fear is that we get some kind of Liz Truss moment and a jump in yields, particularly if we get more inflationary spending.
Despite all this angst, there is a contrarian call for buying bonds as just 2% of fund managers see government bonds as the best-performing asset class in 2025:
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