As we sit and wait for that heavily rumored Cubs-Marlins trade to send Jesus Luzardo to Chicago, I thought we could take a little look at his projections heading into next season. And although it’s early in the winter for ALL the projections to be out there, Steamer is available, and (for the Marlins (but not yet the Cubs)) so is ZiPS.
Before we dive in, a trio of caveats to remember with respect to all projections and Luzardo, specifically:
All projections are conservative by nature. You may find yourself underwhelmed by projections for even the best players in baseball, as the forecast attempts to find the most statistically likely/median outcome based on prior stats, not the range of possibilities or the bump a player might get because of scouting or experience or a pitch mix change or whatever. Jesus Luzardo threw only 12 games (66.2 IP) last season, which skews his numbers a bit. Injuries are absolutely a concern for him, but that’s something for which you should trust the Cubs front office and medical staff more than a computer. The play for Jesus Luzardo, specifically, is an extreme version of scouting the upside. We know he’s struggled and has been hurt, but acquiring him would necessarily be about what you think he might be able to do with all of the weapons in his arsenal, not just what has happened in the past.Okay, then. Onto the projections.
Jesus Luzardo Projections
I am going to break this down by stat category, with Steamer and ZiPS listed for each. That way, you can find your own middleground (or just pick the best of the two and go with that…).
Starts/Innings:
Steamer: 26 starts, 152.0 IP ZiPS: 20 starts, 108.3 IP Average: 23 starts, 130.0 IPStrikeouts and Walks:
Steamer: 24.1 K%, 7.9 BB%, 3.05 K/BB ZiPS: 24.3 K%, 8.2 BB%, 2.94 K/BB Average: 24.2%, 8.0%, 2.99 K/BBAVG, HRs, BABIP:
Steamer: .242 AVG, 1.20 HR/9, .296 BABIP ZiPS: N/A, 1.20 HR/9, .292 BABIP Average: N/A, 1.20 HR/9, .294 BABIPERA, FIP, and WAR:
Steamer: 3.98 ERA, 3.98 FIP, 2.1 WAR ZiPS: 4.15 ERA, 4.07 FIP, 1.6 WAR Average: 4.07 ERA, 4.03 FIP, 1.9 WARSo taken together as an average, Steamer and ZiPS project Jesus Luzardo to throw about 130 innings over 23 starts with a 4.07 ERA (4.03 FIP) and ~2 WAR. There are some nice strikeout/walk numbers in there, and he’s still going to be throwing hard, but that’s moderately underwhelming (which isn’t a surprise, remember the caveats!).
Gregory Fisher-Imagn ImagesWith that said, I think this further demonstrates the point of acquiring Luzardo: for the Cubs, it’s all about the upside. Does a pitcher with those stats have value? Of course. That is an extremely useful arm, especially if he projected for the back of your rotation, like he would with the Cubs. But I also think – at least, based on the Cubs’ needs and the pieces rumored to be involved in a Luzardo trade – that the Cubs expect to get a LOT more out of him than that. In other words, if you would lock in those numbers, I don’t think the Cubs would make the trade. I think they’re hoping for a lot more than that.
And it’s not entirely out of the question. After all, in 2023, Luzardo threw 178.2 innings over 32 starts with a 3.58 ERA, a 28.1 K%, and a 7.4 BB%. That’s the guy the Cubs are hoping they get, if not even better. Luzardo is just 27, after all.
But we cannot – and the projections certainly do not – ignore the disaster that 2024 was. His most recent season was injury-riddled, short, and ineffective (5.00 ERA). To that end, I’d actually argue that his projections are pretty impressive. That was one DUD of a season. Either way, trading for Luzardo is a risk. And if the Cubs opt for him over a pricier to acquire, but more established pitcher in trade (Luis Castillo, Dylan Cease, etc.) or free agency (Jack Flaherty, whomever else), then they are making a gamble on their pitching infrastructure and medical staff.
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