Political and business media, pundits, and experts continue to cite prediction market odds as a credible forecast for the upcoming presidential election, regularly pointing to betting odds on prediction markets such as Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt, and Interactive Brokers as a guide to who is up and down in the horse race – but that is a big mistake. In fact, it is now even been encouraged dangerously and misleadingly in the financial press. [time-brightcove not-tgx=”true”] It appears few journalists, pundits and experts have dug deep into how these prediction markets actually work – and fewer yet have ever actively ‘bet’ on these sites. We have, and we’ve been startled by what
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