Fundamental OverviewYesterday, the US Consumer Confidence report surprised to the downside with one of the largest drops since 2021. The labour market data in the report softened a lot and it generally leads the unemployment rate. The market responded by raising the probabilities for the Fed to cut by 50 bps in November to roughly 60%. The question now is whether this is just about the low hiring rate or something worse. We will have to wait for the NFP report next Friday. On the EUR side, the market started to price in a back-to-back cut in October from the ECB following the latest Eurozone PMIs where the data deteriorated more than expected. Moreover, ECB’s Muller opened the door for a rat
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