A recession could be this election’s ‘October surprise’  ...Middle East

Could a recession be the October surprise that changes the election outlook?   It would be bad news for Kamala Harris. The economy, as always, is the top issue for voters, and a further jump in unemployment, which has already bounced up to 4.2 percent from 3.7 percent this year, would not help her chances of winning.    It would certainly be a surprise, because investors and economists today are almost unanimous believing we are in for a “soft landing.” The betting is that the Federal Reserve will manage to bring interest rates down and continue the push to reduce inflation, all while avoiding a recession. The problem is that that has almost never happened.  Even ISI Evercore’

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