Rates: markets are pricing in a close to 91% chance of a hold from the bank (close to 10% chance of a hike) – quite surprised that it isn’t 100%.The recent trend in economic data has been mostly disappointing, with the Citi Economic Surprise Index for Japan showing a consistent string of downside surprises for Japanese data over the past two months.This trend makes additional hikes a tricky affair for the bank.Bond purchases: last week there were source reports via Nikkei which suggested that the BoJ will consider scaling back their monthly bond buying of 6 trillion yen.It’s unclear how much of a consensus view a bond purchase adjustment is for today’s meeting, but rough estimates from those
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