With the presidential election less than six months away and Donald Trump leading in key swing states, investors and the public are fixated on high inflation. The prevalent view is that inflation was low during Trump’s presidency, and Biden’s economic policies are to blame for the substantial price increases during the past three years. Consequently, many people presume inflation will be lower if Trump wins the presidency than if Biden is reelected. This assessment may not pan out, however, for two reasons. One consideration is that global inflation was much lower during Trump’s presidency than today. For example, from 2017 to 2020, consumer price inflation averaged only 1.5
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