New Delhi: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced that this year, the southwest monsoon is likely to set in over Kerala on May 31, with a model error of ± 4 days. Southwest monsoon normally sets in over Kerala on June 1, with a standard deviation of about seven days. IMD has been issuing operational forecasts for the date of monsoon onset over Kerala from 2005 onwards. An indigenously developed state-of-the-art statistical model with a model error of ± 4 days is used for the purpose, according to an IMD statement. Last year, the monsoon arrived in Kerala on June 8. The IMD had forecast the arrival on June 4 with a margin of ± 4 days. In its latest bulletin, the IMD has forec
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