The narrative of the 2020 election is that Joe Biden did pretty well … but down-ballot Democrats, not so much. And while this is true if you look simply at the results — Republicans defended most of their vulnerable Senate seats and gained several seats in the House — there wasn’t actually as much split-ticket voting as you might think. For decades now, how a person votes for president has become a better and better predictor of how she votes in other races. As we wrote after the 2018 midterms, the correlation between a state or district’s base partisanship and how it voted for Senate o
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