The intensity of the US dollar reaction to the PMI is instructive ...Middle East

This is a market that's been desperately searching for signs of a cooling economy and it's treating today's S&P Global US PMI like an oasis in the desert.It's similar in FX, where we are getting a round of US dollar selling that's lifted the euro by 40 pips and the pound by 60 pips. I wrote yesterday about how I thought we had hit the point of maximum pain in bonds. We may get a better signal in today's whopping $69 billion sale of 2s but with a 3 bps decline today, a sale at 5% is looking less likely.The S&P Global services PMI doesn't have a perfect record but it's a forward-looking indicator and cracks the door open to some cooling in the economy -- and the rate cuts the market wants with

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