Opening day is almost here, and with the approach of Thursday’s full slate of Major League Baseball games comes the moment when the logic and reason of projections gives way to the chaos of a baseball season. Across 162 games, there are always surprises — to the extent that the surest way to make incorrect predictions would be expecting last year’s best teams to rise to the top again. Since MLB expanded the postseason field with the second wild card in 2012, roughly half of all playoff teams have come from the pool of clubs that missed October the previous season. And more than 20% of playoff entrants logged a losing record the previous MLB season. That pattern held true in 2023, when
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