Goldman Sachs presents its forecast for the upcoming February jobs report, predicting a deceleration in payroll growth to 215k from January's exceptional figures. The forecast is grounded in the expectation of a normalization following January's one-off surge, attributed to seasonal adjustments and low layoff rates, with February's mild weather potentially adding 30-50k jobs. Additionally, Goldman Sachs anticipates average hourly earnings to be flat, attributing January's significant increase to severe winter weather effects. The firm expects the unemployment rate to hold steady at 3.7%.Key Points:Payroll Growth Forecast: Anticipated slowdown to 215k in February, reflecting a return to more
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