There are 103 people betting on whether Austin Chen and Rachel Weinberg will still be married in five years time. The aggregation of their bets puts the probability at 92%. The couple are more bullish—Chen puts the probability as high as 98%. As is customary for users of the website Manifold, where people can bet on anything from the outcome of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election to winner of Best Actress at the Oscars, they’ve both put their—virtual—money where their mouths are. If his marriage endures, Chen stands to win 6,483 Mana, Manifold’s play currency. (Mana are named after magical stamina in video games and can be purchased at a rate of one dollar per hundred Mana and tra
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