The US Treasury will release its quarterly financing estimates at 3 pm ahead of Wednesday's quarterly refunding announcement. In this edition, the Treasury will announce how much it will need to borrow in the quarter ahead with estimates for further down the line. On Wednesday, it will announce where on the curve it will borrow from.Initial estimates of Q1 borrowing were $816 billion so anything less than that could see bids in the long end. My guess is that due to stronger growth, we will see higher tax receipt estimates and at least a few bill lion shaved off that. However Treasury yields are already down today so the market may have front-run that thinking. The October quarterly refunding
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