By allowing Russian troops to invade Ukraine from inside Belarus in February 2022, Belarusian president Aleksandr Lukashenko sealed his fate alongside that of Russia. This means that, when Russia’s fortunes decline, Lukashenko’s demise will also draw nearer. Since first becoming president of Belarus in 1994, shortly after its independence from the Soviet Union, Lukashenko has continuously tightened his grip on power. As a result, he has had a strained relationship with the West. Since 1997, Belarus has been subject to various forms of European Union sanctions in response to recurrent human rights violations, fraudulent elections and political repression. Following Russia’s first
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