A breakdown in OPEC would have broad macro effects ...Middle East

There is still a high chance that OPEC+ comes to an agreement on supply as higher prices are positive for all oil-producing countries. However, there appears to be a real sticking point over country quotas, particularly in Africa.If the talks become heated enough, producer discipline could break down or Saudi Arabia could withdraw its 'lollypop' additional 1 million barrel per day cut. If so, there is the risk of material downside in oil.If were were to see a breakdown in OPEC, oil could easily fall in to the $50s, which would be sharply disinflationary. I think it would be the nail in the coffin of the 'sticky' inflation argument. Aside from shorting oil, the obvious trades on it would be:B

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