Recent polls suggest that President Biden and former President Donald Trump are running neck and neck in a 2024 rematch. But can such polls be taken seriously? Many Americans may suspect otherwise. It is widely perceived that the presidential polls failed miserably in 2016 and, just as importantly, performed no better in 2020. Late that year, The New York Times ran an article titled “2016 Dealt a Blow to Polling. Did 2020 Kill It?” while former Secretary of State James Baker declared that “this time, we were promised that the pollsters would get it right. They didn’t.” The prestigious American Association of Public Opinion Research was more critical of the 2020 polls than those in 201
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