Markets have not distinguished themselves in anticipating European economic crises. In late 2009, on the eve of the Greek sovereign debt crisis, Greek government bonds traded with a yield that was barely above that of German government bonds. A year later, the Greek sovereign debt crisis shook U.S. and world financial markets and Greece eventually defaulted on its loans. That was then the largest sovereign debt default on record. Judging by the relative calm in the Italian sovereign debt market, one wonders whether the market is making a similar mistake. Discounting the possibility of an Italian sovereign debt market crisis despite that country’s deteriorating economic fundamenta
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