My record as a political forecaster is creditable, but I admit to one complete aberration. In 1996, I thought that, despite the incumbent’s overwhelming advantage in political skills, Sen. Bob Dole of Kansas would narrowly defeat President Bill Clinton. (Clinton won 379 to 159 in the Electoral College. I was not even close.) My rationale was that there was already enough scandal whirling around the White House — Paula Jones, Whitewater — to continue the GOP’s momentum from the midterm sweep of Congress two years before and oust the president. I was wrong, but I felt a tiny sense of vindication the following spring when the term “impeachment” was first brought into the open by Rep. Bob
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