Week 1 always has its share of surprises. We haven’t seen most of these teams play in eight months. In fact, we really haven’t seen any of these teams ever play; like the water in a stream, they are all new and different teams. So if you rely too much on last season’s numbers and assessments when betting on Week 1, you are apt to lose. Betters and markets overvalue the strength of the previous season’s playoff teams even though half of them will miss the playoffs the next season. When prior playoff teams face teams that missed the playoffs the previous year, the line error is particularly large: -4.3 on average, according to a 2012 thesis by then-Ohio University business administration st
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