Four months before the Great Recession, in July 2007, economic data was reported as follows: the Federal Funds target interest rate was 5.26 percent; GDP adjusted for inflation had grown 1.9 percent in the previous four quarters; inflation was at a 3.6 percent rate for the preceding six months; non-farm employment had grown steadily for years; and home prices had fallen from double-digit growth to single-digit declines. The above statistics match today’s data, virtually to the decimal point. Parallels between then and now extend to the precarious state of the U.S. banking system, albeit with different causes. In 2007, debt was growing uncontrollably. Private nonfinancial debt more tha
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