Predicting how an industry will look 20 or more years from now is always a challenge. There are always unforeseen factors that have potential powers of disruption that could throw any forecast out the window, and that’s why long-term forecasts tend to be generally vague. Unless they’re about oil and gas. When it comes to oil and gas, there are two schools of long-term forecasting thought, and these two schools are at odds with each other. One school—the transition school—argues that the electrification of transport and the…
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