A good way to start the New Year: The New York Times and Washington Post have run excellent post mortems on why Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine has been a disaster so far. The larger question, however, is whether this failed invasion was a surprise. Many countries, particularly the United States, have blundered in using force and starting wars, assuming that its formidable military could not fail. Why should Russia be immune to similar misjudgments? Fully understanding Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decisionmaking must be circumstantial. But consider his likely thought process, ironically paralleling that of several American presidents in deciding to go to war. In late 2
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