Global central banks have made an ‘all-in’ effort to front-load monetary policy tightening to dampen demand. But softer economic data in the eurozone and United States have exacerbated recession fears. As the growth outlook dims, many anticipate demand destruction to lead to lower inflation. That is, tighter monetary policy and the associated higher funding costs will cut into demand and offset the supply shortages resulting from geopolitical instability and supply-chain disruptions. This view hinges on the belief that inflation outcomes…
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