I know exactly how to get you to stop reading right now: We’re going to do a little arithmetic! It’s simple, so I hope you’ll bear with me. Each cycle, pollsters and pundits alike seem to derive great pleasure from anointing some segment of the electorate as the decider of the outcome. For months, perhaps years, we’ll be hearing that some group of voters decided this election. I’m here to suggest that such an approach is often meaningless and incoherent, masking several different questions. Let’s start with an imaginary electorate made up of 80 moose and 20 bears who must choose between two candidates: Bullwinkle Moose and Yogi Bear. Begin where the case for a decis
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