The midterm elections can be seen through the prism of a football game: For the first half, the Republicans opened up a big lead. Then in the third quarter — from the Supreme Court's anti-abortion decision to Labor Day — the Democrats closed the gap. Since then, their offense stalled, the Republicans kicked the political equivalent of a field goal to open a small advantage. Today, a month out from the election, the odds are the GOP picking up 10 to 20 House seats, with an even shot at winning the Senate. There remain some overarching themes that could affect the dynamics in the closing weeks. Both sides prefer a president to be in the limelight: The Republicans want it to be J
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