While Republicans are seen as heavy favorites to win control of the House of Representatives in this year’s midterms, the fate of the Senate is much less certain, though Democrats do appear to have a narrow advantage. One explanation for this disparity is the nature of House and Senate contests. House races are primarily tied to public sentiment and correlate with presidential approval, while individual candidates matter much more in Senate races. Presidents with an approval rating below 50 percent — as President Biden’s has been for most of his term — see their party lose an average of 37 House seats in the midterms. When Americans are dissatisfied with how things are going in th
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