One of the puzzling economic developments during the first half of 2022 (2022H1) was the sharp disconnect between output and employment growth. Data released so far suggest that the economy shrank during 2022H1. Yet, employment growth was exceedingly robust during 2022H1. Why are companies adding so many workers if aggregate production is falling? Is the disconnect mostly the result of measurement errors or is something more structural affecting the U.S. economy? How does the output-employment divergence affect the Federal Reserve’s ongoing battle against high inflation? On the measurement errors front, issues associated with employment data from the two surveys used to capture key
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