As Democrats voice growing confidence about their midterm election prospects, two trends suggest that the party’s newfound sense of optimism may be misguided. Taken together, unrelenting inflation and the potential for a 2020-like polling error that overestimates Democrats’ strength could indicate that the Democratic Party is in a more fragile position than most in the media are currently acknowledging or appreciating. Earlier in the year, a red-wave midterm election — on par with 1994, when Republicans gained 54 U.S. House seats and flipped control of both houses of Congress — seemed almost inevitable. But since mid-June, Democrats’ position has been strengthened by declining gas
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