The bond market is signalling that in the matter of the Federal Reserve versus inflation, its money is on the US central bank. Demand for inflation protection – as measured by yields on inflation-protected Treasury debt – keeps falling. The five-year expected inflation rate implied by those yields is back below 2.6%, down from a March peak of 3.76%. Meanwhile the market’s expected peak in the Fed’s policy rate remains below 4%, and long-dated Treasury yields have rebounded from levels that suggested a recession was in the cards. “If inflation comes down to what breakevens are pricing today, then a soft landing is possible,” said Rick Rieder, the chief investment officer of global fixed inco
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