As the U.S. economy continues to cool down, there is a growing debate over when (rather than whether) the ongoing slowdown will morph into a full-fledged recession. In fact, the real argument is about the timing and depth of the coming downturn. Some analysts even believe that the U.S. is already in a recession. Given the heightened uncertainty surrounding the near-term economic outlook, there is a need for an objective assessment of the risks and headwinds facing the American economy. It is helpful to clarify what economists mean by a recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the official arbiter of business cycle turning points in the U.S., identifies and dates r
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